Nigeria’s petrol consumption hits 44.4million l/d in September, says NMDPRA

By Onu Okorie

Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market came under renewed supply pressure in September as daily petrol consumption rose above volumes received into the domestic market, leaving the country’s strategic stock position below the regulatory 30-day threshold.
Latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that average petrol receipts fell sharply by 23 per cent to 38.7 million litres per day in September, from 50.5 million litres per day in August.
The decline came at a time average petrol consumption, measured by volumes trucked out into the domestic market, increased by seven per cent to 44.4 million litres per day from 41.5 million litres per day in August.
The figures indicate a daily gap of about 5.7 million litres between petrol receipts and consumption during the month, effectively putting greater reliance on existing inventories to keep the domestic market supplied.
Despite the pressure, petrol stock cover improved marginally from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September. It nevertheless remained 6.1 days below the NMDPRA’s required 30-day stock-sufficiency threshold. Petrol stock cover has remained below the threshold since March, although it has improved for four consecutive months.
The regulator’s September statistics also point to a significant shift in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure, with domestic refining now providing the bulk of products received into the market.
Of the 38.7 million litres of petrol received daily, domestic sources accounted for 28.5 million litres, while imports supplied 10.2 million litres. Domestic supply, however, was itself 21 per cent lower than in August, while imports declined by 30 per cent.
NMDPRA attributed the fall in September receipts to lower domestic supply and reduced imports as approved import permit volumes were being exhausted.
Dangote refinery dominates domestic supply
The data further underline the growing importance of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery to Nigeria’s fuel-security equation.
The refinery recorded average capacity utilisation of 105.98 per cent during September. NMDPRA explained that utilisation above installed capacity could result from optimisation, debottlenecking and improved reliability.
Dangote produced an average 47.22 million litres of petrol daily during the month, of which 28.50 million litres went into domestic receipts while 15.47 million litres was exported. Another 3.25 million litres per day was added to stock.
The refinery closed September with 366.2 million litres of petrol in stock, while petrol exports represented 35.2 per cent of its evacuation.
In contrast, the three NNPC refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna recorded no production during the month, according to the regulator.
NMDPRA said domestic refining contributed about 65 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol requirement, measured against consumption, in September and about 74 per cent of total petrol receipts, with imports providing the balance.
Diesel receipts hit 13-month low
The tightening was not limited to petrol.
Diesel receipts plunged 40 per cent from 14.5 million litres per day in August to 8.7 million litres per day in September, the lowest level recorded over the preceding 13 months.
Domestic refineries supplied 8.1 million litres per day, while imports accounted for only 600,000 litres daily. NMDPRA attributed the decline to low imports and weak domestic evacuation amid high prices.
Diesel consumption, meanwhile, stood at 14.5 million litres per day, slightly above the authority’s 14 million-litre daily benchmark. Despite the receipts-consumption gap, diesel inventories provided a considerably stronger buffer than petrol, with stock sufficiency at 49.7 days.
Aviation fuel was also comfortably above the regulatory stock threshold at 53.2 days, while cooking gas stock stood at only 15.9 days, representing a deficit of 14.1 days against the 30-day benchmark.
Petrol consumption rebounds
The report showed that petrol consumption rebounded from a 13-month low of 41.5 million litres per day in August to 44.4 million litres in September.
However, consumption remained below both the official 50 million-litre daily demand benchmark and the 13-month average of 50.8 million litres per day.
At 44.4 million litres, September petrol consumption was equivalent to 88.8 per cent of the official benchmark.
Diesel consumption was 103.6 per cent of its benchmark, aviation fuel was exactly at its three-million-litre-per-day benchmark, while LPG consumption reached 133.3 per cent of the official benchmark.
LPG demand races ahead
The LPG market emerged as another area of rapidly expanding demand.
Cooking gas consumption increased eight per cent from 4.8 kilotonnes per day in August to 5.2 kilotonnes per day in September, substantially exceeding the official demand benchmark of 3.9 kilotonnes per day.
However, LPG receipts averaged 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with domestic sources supplying 4.5 kilotonnes and imports just 0.2 kilotonnes daily.
NLNG and Seplat Exploration and Production Nigeria Unlimited vessel deliveries accounted for 54.3 per cent of September LPG supply, while other processing plants contributed 26.4 per cent and the Dangote refinery 15.1 per cent. Imports represented only 4.2 per cent.
Pump prices remain elevated
NMDPRA’s price data showed significant regional differences in petrol prices during September.
Actual petrol prices in Abuja ranged between N1,345 and N1,445 per litre, while Lagos recorded between N1,293.75 and N1,367.50. Maiduguri had one of the highest ranges at N1,410.50 to N1,450 per litre.
For LPG, observed retail prices ranged from a low of N1,200 per kilogramme in Abuja to a peak of N1,600 per kilogramme in Bauchi.
The regulator said stronger domestic LPG supply, which rose 50 per cent between August and September, helped moderate the impact of international price volatility, with actual retail prices below its indicative prices in all the states surveyed.
Gas infrastructure records mixed performance
Beyond petroleum products, the report showed that Nigeria’s 47 gas processing plants had combined installed capacity of 16.187 billion cubic feet per day but processed an average of 8.394 billion cubic feet daily, translating to utilisation of 51.86 per cent.
Average gas supply, including volumes supplied to NLNG, declined by 2.2 per cent to 4.822 billion cubic feet per day in September.
Domestic gas supply dropped 6.7 per cent to 2.066 billion cubic feet per day, while supply to NLNG increased 1.5 per cent to 2.756 billion cubic feet daily.
Progress on major gas infrastructure was also mixed. The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline stood at 84 per cent completion after the project was re-scoped to accommodate additional ancillary facilities.
The OB3 project was 96 per cent completed, while the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System midline compressor project reached 96.79 per cent. The Odidi-Warri expansion stood at 78.37 per cent and the Escravos-Odidi project at 29.98 per cent.
Overall, the September numbers present a contrasting picture of Nigeria’s downstream transition: domestic refining is steadily displacing imports and assuming a more central role in fuel supply, but declining monthly receipts, rising consumption and petrol inventories still below the 30-day regulatory threshold show that the country’s fuel-security buffer remains under pressure.