Nigeria’s petrol supply shortfall hits 17% in August – NMDPRA

By Onu Okorie

Nigeria’s expanding domestic refining capacity has yet to translate into petrol supplies sufficient to meet the regulatory benchmark, as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption fell 17 per cent below the level set by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority NMDPRA in August.
The latest NMDPRA monthly factsheet showed that average PMS consumption stood at 41.5 million litres per day during the month, compared with the 50 million-litre daily benchmark.
The gap amounted to 8.5 million litres every day, while petrol stock sufficiency stood at 22.9 days, 7.1 days short of the regulator’s 30-day strategic threshold.
The figures present a mixed picture of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, where domestic refining is expanding rapidly but strategic inventories for some key products remain below regulatory targets.
The development comes against the backdrop of strong production from the Dangote Refinery, which recorded average capacity utilisation of 105.21 per cent in August.
The refinery produced an average 41.94 million litres of PMS daily, in addition to 18.01 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and 24.48 million litres of aviation fuel.
However, only 35.87 million litres of its daily PMS output was received by the domestic market on average. The refinery exported an average of 9.73 million litres of PMS per day during the period.
Its export volumes also included 8.75 million litres of AGO and 21.30 million litres of aviation fuel daily, highlighting the growing role of exports in the operations of Nigeria’s largest refinery.
LPG faces deeper stock pressure
While petrol inventories remained below the regulatory threshold, the situation was more pronounced in the cooking gas market.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) stock sufficiency stood at just 17.2 days in August, representing a shortfall of 12.8 days against the 30-day benchmark.
At the same time, LPG consumption increased significantly, averaging 4.8 kilotonnes per day compared with the 3.9-kilotonnes benchmark.
The 900-tonne daily difference represents a 23.1 per cent increase over the regulatory benchmark, suggesting that demand for cooking gas is growing faster than the strategic inventory maintained for the product.
Diesel, aviation fuel stocks remain comfortable
The inventory position was considerably stronger for diesel and aviation fuel.
AGO stock sufficiency stood at 51.6 days, giving the product a surplus of 21.6 days above the 30-day benchmark.
Aviation fuel recorded an even stronger position, with 82.3 days of stock sufficiency—52.3 days above the regulatory threshold.
Demand for diesel also exceeded the regulatory benchmark. Average AGO consumption reached 14.3 million litres per day, compared with the 14 million-litre benchmark.
Aviation fuel consumption, however, averaged 2.8 million litres daily, slightly below its three-million-litre benchmark.
Domestic refining remains uneven
The performance of smaller modular refineries varied considerably during the month.
Edo Refinery recorded 90.43 per cent average capacity utilisation, while WalterSmith operated at 64.77 per cent. Aradel posted 58.77 per cent utilisation, while OPAC operated at 16.97 per cent.
The listed modular refineries collectively supplied an average of 0.79 million litres of AGO daily.
By contrast, refineries operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recorded no production during August, according to the NMDPRA data.
The contrasting performances underline the uneven recovery of Nigeria’s refining industry even as domestic refining assumes a larger role in the petroleum supply chain.
Gas infrastructure still underused
The NMDPRA report also showed that Nigeria’s gas-processing infrastructure continues to operate below its installed capacity.
The country had 47 gas-processing plants with combined installed capacity of 16.187 billion cubic feet per day. Actual average gas processing, however, stood at 8.258 billion cubic feet per day in August.
This means a substantial portion of installed processing capacity remained unused.
Gas consumption during the month included 0.537 billion cubic feet per day for power generation, 0.590 billion cubic feet for commercial users and 0.633 billion cubic feet for gas-based industries.
The August data therefore paints a petroleum sector undergoing structural change. Domestic refining capacity is becoming more significant, particularly with the strong performance of the Dangote Refinery, but the expansion has not eliminated gaps in strategic stocks.
For petrol and LPG, the challenge remains particularly pronounced, with both products recording inventory levels below the NMDPRA’s 30-day benchmark. Diesel and aviation fuel, meanwhile, maintained substantial stock cushions.
The figures suggest that increasing refining output alone may not immediately resolve supply and inventory pressures, with domestic receipts, consumption patterns, exports and strategic stock management all shaping the availability of petroleum products in the Nigerian market.