Finance, Budget Ministries move to strengthen economic data, fiscal assumptions

By Onu Okorie

Federal Ministry of Finance and the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning have agreed on measures to strengthen macroeconomic forecasting, improve data coordination and reduce unrealistic assumptions in Nigeria’s budgeting and economic planning process.
The resolutions were reached at a Macroeconomic Data and Assumptions Validation Workshop convened by the two ministries on August 29, 2026, with key fiscal and monetary data institutions across government in attendance.
The workshop was aimed at ensuring that Nigeria’s economic planning and budgeting are anchored on credible data, realistic assumptions and transparent methodologies.
A review of previous budget cycles identified significant gaps between some macroeconomic assumptions and actual outcomes, particularly in oil production and revenue projections.
Consequently, participants agreed on a number of measures designed to improve forecasting and coordination among government institutions and reduce optimism bias in future budgets.
Among the key resolutions was the establishment of a Standing Committee on Macroeconomic Data and Assumptions to provide continuous validation and review, as well as report to the Economic Management Team.
The workshop also agreed on the creation of a central data repository to ensure that government institutions work with a single, consistent set of economic data and assumptions.
Participants further resolved to develop a unified national data reporting framework with standard definitions for key fiscal indicators, including revenue, expenditure and borrowing.
Other measures include strengthening coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities and improving the timeliness and quality of key national statistics, particularly data on employment, productivity and producer prices.
The assumptions underpinning the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP), as well as the annual budget, will also be subjected to stronger methodologies, sensitivity analysis and scenario testing before they are finalised.
The initiative is part of the Federal Government’s broader efforts to improve fiscal transparency, accountability and evidence-based economic management.
The organisers said the reforms were based on the principle that improved data would lead to better assumptions and planning, which should ultimately translate into stronger economic outcomes for Nigerians.
The workshop marks another step towards addressing long-standing weaknesses in macroeconomic forecasting and ensuring greater alignment between government projections, budget targets and actual economic realities.