Nigeria to launch new oil licensing round in October — NUPRC

By Onu Okorie

Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission NUPRC is set to launch a new oil licensing round by early October 2026, featuring 13 unlicensed blocks returned to the pool from the previous bidding process.
Chief Executive Officer of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this while outlining the regulator’s strategy to revive crude oil production and attract fresh investment into Nigeria’s upstream sector.
Eyesan said the new licensing round would cover assets across Nigeria’s deepwater and shallow-water areas, with possible inclusion of frontier onshore basins. She, however, declined to disclose details of the specific blocks to be offered.
She said the NUPRC was targeting between $30 billion and $50 billion in new investments in 22 deepwater projects by 2030, supported by recently introduced tax incentives and renewed investor interest in West Africa.
According to her, geopolitical developments, including the US-Iran conflict, have also influenced the way international investors assess their exposure to the region.
Eyesan said the commission’s objective was to sustain at least one licensing round annually as part of efforts to reverse Nigeria’s declining oil production.
She explained that the new licensing strategy would be supported by “drill-or-drop” provisions designed to ensure that awarded assets are actively developed rather than being held passively by licence owners.
“This will be the first round that I will oversee from start to finish,” Eyesan said, adding that the commission would place greater emphasis on offering “viable assets” to investors.
She acknowledged that the regulator had taken a gamble by including some licences in the previous bid round before they were sufficiently ready for the market.
The NUPRC chief said the forthcoming round would not be targeted primarily at international oil majors, noting the emergence of successful indigenous operators such as Renaissance and First E&P.
The strategy follows the exit of several international oil majors, including Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Eni, from parts of Nigeria’s onshore oil operations.
Eyesan said the commission was therefore focused on developing a new generation of operators capable of unlocking the potential of Nigeria’s inland oil-producing areas.
The regulator is also seeking to accelerate the pace of licensing, with Eyesan indicating that Nigeria could eventually conduct annual or even twice-yearly bid rounds, with a turnaround time of between six and seven months.
She noted that the pace of licensing had increased substantially since the Petroleum Industry Act, with the number of assets offered rising from seven oil blocks in the 2022/23 mini bid round to 19 in 2024 and 50 in 2025.
Of the 50 licences offered in the most recent round covering the Niger Delta, Benin, Anambra and Chad basins, 37 were awarded in July.
Eyesan said the newly awarded concessions were expected to increase Nigeria’s oil production by about 300,000 barrels per day within their first three years, while subsequent licensing rounds could generate an additional 300,000 to 600,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria currently produces about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate, according to OPEC+ data, while production has remained below two million barrels per day for more than a decade.
Eyesan has been charged with helping Nigeria achieve a production target of three million barrels per day by 2030, despite persistent challenges including ageing fields, crude theft, vandalism and inadequate investment.
Beyond increasing production, the NUPRC boss said Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity was changing the dynamics of the country’s oil industry.
Since the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery in 2024, the country has developed a major domestic market for its crude, increasing the importance of securing reliable feedstock for local refineries.
Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed that the Dangote refinery, operating at a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, recently sourced about 77 per cent of its crude feedstock from Nigeria.
The refinery has, however, previously raised concerns over the availability of domestic crude and reliability at some terminals. Those challenges could become more significant when its planned expansion, which would double its capacity, is completed.
Eyesan said she supported the ambition of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to have virtually all Nigerian crude refined domestically by 2030, arguing that greater integration between the upstream and downstream sectors would benefit the economy.
She also disclosed plans by the NUPRC to introduce a compliance trading platform to improve implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation.
Under the proposed system, producers exceeding their domestic supply obligations would be able to swap compliance certificates with producers focused on exports.
However, Eyesan said domestic supply policies should not prevent refiners from making commercially rational decisions.
She said Dangote Refinery should retain the flexibility to source crude based on economic considerations, noting that the company should not be faulted if it chooses imported crude when cheaper alternatives are available.
Looking beyond the 2030 production target, Eyesan expressed confidence that Nigeria could eventually establish a significant crude oil surplus.
She projected that the country could potentially raise crude production to four million barrels per day within the next eight to 10 years, particularly as new investments, licensing reforms and expanding domestic refining capacity begin to reinforce each other.
The planned October licensing round is therefore expected to serve as another major test of the government’s efforts to attract capital, develop new operators and restore Nigeria’s position as a leading crude oil producer in Africa.